FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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February 27

​NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
But the most interesting fact is that the NYSE Index compare to the Mighty SP500 Index reached a level not seen since February 2001.

As Hedge Fund Returns Falter, Money Continues to Flow In
Hedge funds also benefit from a premise that won’t be put to the test until another bear market sets in, which hasn’t happened since 2008.

​​​Apple May Disappoint Investors With Its Updated Buyback And Dividend Programs Apple’s debt load combined with so much of its cash held overseas could limit how much it will increase its dividend and stock buyback.


​​February 26

​NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
This indicator is in Overbought Conditions already: ​the market ​​is expected to start a tiny correction wave  within the next few sessions as history suggest.​

The Healthcare Sector : Break Out Sustainable ?
​It need to stay above 72.00 now - unless we have a false break out.​​​​

Technical Observation of the Day: False Break Out on Apple - AAPL
On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17.

​Don’t kid yourself: stocks are just as overvalued today as they were in 2000
So don’t kid yourself. Stocks aren’t any cheaper today than they were at the height of the internet bubble. What’s truly “different this time” is that, rather than seeing incredible overvaluation confined to just one segment of the market, it is far more pervasive than it was back then. In my view, this also makes it far more insidious.

​​​Why you are forced to own Apple
​“It has become such a large company that if you have a bullish point of view on the market, you are forced to own Apple”

​​​​​​​February 25

VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
Also interesting to note​​ the Fear and Greed Index from CNN Money; as of February 24 is at Extreme Greed.

SP500 Consumer Discretionary Bullish % Index: One of the Highest Bullish Sentiment of the Past Year ? Also take note of the Shrinking Volume at a time were we reached Over Confidence and the highest level ever on the XLY ETF... ​​

​Six differences between now and last time Nasdaq was at 5,000
The market isn’t as frothy as it was in 2000, but it’s very expensive.

Morgan Stanley Believes Apple CAN Disrupt the Auto Industry
The average US driver today spends about 25% of his/her free time in the car and Apple will want to target this captive audience – especially if we go autonomous.

February 24

SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Near Overbought Zone ?
This ratio is within the Overbought Zone as we getting near the level reached on previous turning points for the market ( Downward ).

Are Conditions Setting the Market Up for a Summer Washout?
The stock market makes most of its gains each year in a favorable period of November to May, and if there is a serious correction it usually takes place between May and October.

Hedge Funds Take a Bigger Bite Out of Apple, Says Goldman
As the tech giant’s market cap has reached record heights, Apple’s shares are the most popular long holding among 688 hedge funds surveyed by Goldman Sachs for the second straight quarter. About one in five hedge funds owns the stock and 12% have it as a top 10 position.

​​​​​​​​​February 23

Canadian and US Energy Sector: Canadian Oil Assets at Huge Discount ?
On a relative basis, the last time it was that cheap for the Canadian Oil Energy Sector was in August 2001.​​

SP500 Technology Bull% Index: The Apple Experiment - AAPL ?
That % indicator on Technology Stocks is again over a level of 80% treshold since February 20 ( spot index at 83.1%); it is now into the overbought level as history suggest.

Technical Observation of the Day: Break Out on Apple - AAPL
​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge.

From Apple to Avon, rising dollar takes toll on US corporate profits.
​Over the past year, the dollar has climbed 18 percent against major currencies. The surging dollar and plunging oil prices are the main reasons analysts keep cutting their forecasts for corporate profits even though economists expect the U.S. economy to pick up speed.

Is Apple Starting To Lose Hedge Fund Support?

Some of the value-oriented fund managers indicated in our conversations that they are taking chips off the table because the easy money in Apple has been made.

​​​​​​​​February 20

Russell 2000 and DJ Industrial ratio: Still Outperforming and Break Out ?
Observe also the Break Out on the Russell 2000​​ from a Major Resistance Trendline broken on February 17 at the 1222.3 level ( now becomes Major Support ).

SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 24% ?

So the volume decreased with the SP500 futures making new highs from the previous peak on December 29 2014; a bad behavior indeed that we have a decrease in volume ​in an all time high phase as history suggest...

Technical Observation of the Day: Rising Wedge on Apple - AAPL
​Apple Shares is within a tiny rising wedge that started on February 17 with $128.48 as support and $129.10 as resistance. On February 19, Apple Shares created a Shooting Star Pattern: a bad technical sign indeed.

​Low volatility ETFs sound the same but bring different results
Investors are flinging money at low-volatility exchange-traded funds at a record pace in hopes of protecting their portfolios from wild swings in equity markets, but they may not get all the coverage they expect.
​​
What Icahn Thinks Investors Are Missing in Apple’s Earnings
The billionaire investor says analysts and investors have constantly overestimated the tax obligations of Apple Inc., causing them to consistently underestimate the tech giant’s earning power and undervalue the company.

​​​​​​​​​February 19

​​SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Too Bullish ?
But getting over the 200 DMA on that Indicator have been in the past a first warning sign ​of overbought conditions building up.

​​The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Near Break Out ?
We are near a break out in the XLI ETF as we are in the process of testing the previous highs; A​​ Daily close above 57.62 will be the break out point...

​7 charts that suggest the rising stock market may be wrong
​Stocks and some economic data are diverging like they did before the last two recessions.

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Trading SP500 - All you need in terms of information to trade E-Mini SP500 Futures​
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Trading Apple - All you need in terms of information to trade Apple Shares​