FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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April 24

VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
Also observe that the SP500 index broke on April 23rd an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started since February 25 2015 but still far of breaking the Major Rising Wedge that started on October 2015.
So in summary, a Skirmish was won by the Bulls but the battle is still on for a Real Break Out.​
At those level, there is absolutely no Fear being priced into the Market.


The View at 30,000 Feet
​The weight of the evidence suggests that equity investors should have a bullish bias until trendline supports are violated.

​Apple’s Q2 Earnings Will Be All About China
​We believe that iPhone sales in Greater China will be the biggest driver of quarterly earnings given the Chinese New Year shopping season that occurred in February, China Mobile’s rapid 4G user additions and an improved supply-demand balance for the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus, both of which remained undersupplied over the previous quarter.

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​​​​April 23

SP500: High Beta-Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Highest since Sept 2014 ?

It does tell us that the Risk Taking Behavior is getting a lot stronger ​since the Break Out of a Resistance Trendline on April 7.

SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Strong Bullish Sentiment but Weak Price Action ?Observe that we are near breaking the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) that must hold at all cost to be bullish on Financials.

Technical Observation of the Day: Break Out on Apple - AAPL
On April 22, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $128.12 that comes from the peak on April 7 and April 20.

Forget about Wall Street: Shanghai is now the market to watch
​Chinese investors, brokers and banks will dominate global finance.

China Mobile's Explosive 4G Subscriber Growth Could Help Apple Exceed iPhone Estimates In just the past three months China Mobile added 53 million 4G customers which compares to 49.1 million in the December quarter.

​​​​​​April 22

SP500: My Ascending Triangle Pattern ?
We ​need to first break a Major Daily Ascending Triangle Pattern at 2111 before thinking the huge break out​​ at the 2151 level for now​....

Choppy April trading gives way to solid month-end gains
Over the last 21 years, April is the top performing month for DJIA and S&P 500 with gains averaging 2.7% and 2.1% respectively.
​​
​​Read This Before You Sell Apple Inc. Stock
With Apple stock trading a whopping 67% higher than it was 12 months ago and management gearing up to report second-quarter earnings next Monday, some investors might be tempted to sell shares and take their gains. But shareholders should think carefully before they do so.
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​​​April 21

SP500 Financials HVol: Rising HVol ?
But what is interesting, it is that HVol is getting lower in a bear trend since March 23rd with Financials, a very unusual trading behavior.

​​​​Technical Observation of the Day: Break Out on Apple - AAPL
On April 20, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $127.28 that comes from the peak on March 19 and April 7.

​A Canary In The Coal Mine?
What does GE know that we don’t? That was my initial reaction to the news this week that GE is exiting the finance business that has provided it a seemingly endless stream of profits over the last three decades.

Apple Inc. Investors Ignore Watch, Look To Dividend, Here’s Why
Apple will deliver its earnings report for the first three months of the year, a period it records as its second quarter of 2015, next Monday afternoon and there’s just one thing on the minds of the company’s investors. This report won’t be about the Apple Watch or even the iPhone, it will be about the company’s capital return program.

​April 20

SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Weakening Technicals ?
But what is interesting indeed is that ratio already broke the support trendline​​ that started on January 6 and SP500 Index is near a Major Support Trendline on a Rising Wedge. We must follow that carefully...

SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Quite Bullish ?

But getting over the 200 DMA on that Indicator ( now at 70.48 - ​red line chart below ) have been in the past a first warning sign ​of overbought conditions building up.

Technical Observation of the Day: Broken 20 DMA And 50 DMA on Apple - AAPL On April 17, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $125.73 and the 50 DMA then at $126.21.

​SPX: Another Failed Breakout

​The trend line that connects the three lower highs from the March top is resulting to be the "bete noire" for the bulls.

Apple: Smart Money Underweight, Dumb Money Overweight
Barron’s published an article on Apple this weekend arguing that investors may be holding too much of Apple which may create diversification problems. “AS PROBLEMS GO, of course, Apple’s a pretty good one to have.

​​​​​April 17

SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Unusual Behavior ?

There is less and less Volatility being priced from the Market compare the to the outlier events probability
​(or the SKEW). This Unusual Behavior have been in the past associated with huge market move...


SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 39.4% ?
Bullish Sentiment is weakening tremendously as we are near ​an all time high ​on the Stock Market.

​Technical Observation of the Day: 20 DMA Below the 50 DMA on Apple - AAPL On April 16, the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11

Economic Uncertainty Driving Corporate Buybacks?
Buybacks have been a major factor in driving this market higher.

​​3 Numbers Apple Investors Should Know About the Apple Watch Launch
The Apple Watch won't fully diversify Apple away from its top-line reliance on the iPhone, but its launch represents a promising way to pin its brand on the luxury market while sidestepping the commoditization of the smartphone and tablet markets.

​​​​​​April 16

SP500: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade - Update ?
Will SP500 Index break or fade ? ​​Well the answer will be: need to first break a tiny daily rising wedge at 2111 before thinking the huge break out​​ at the 2148 level for now​....



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Trading SP500 - All you need in terms of information to trade E-Mini SP500 Futures​
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Trading Apple - All you need in terms of information to trade Apple Shares​