FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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March 31

SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Fading ?
It does tell us that the Risk Taking Behavior is getting weaker ​since the
​SP500 made a new high ever on March 2 2015.


​​​The Consumer Staples Sector - XLP : Testing the Resistance Trendline ?
​But the most interesting part is that we tested on March 30 the Resistance Trendline that started on March 3
at 49.22 ( 49.18 for March 31 ).​ ​We need a daily close above 49.18 to have a real break out.


Technical Observation of the Day: Above the 20 DMA on Apple - AAPL
On March 30, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $126.03.

Risk Has Begun To Rein
Investment in the riskiest assets has been on a relative decline, a development which has preceded previous major tops.

Setting The Stage For A Larger Apple Share Buyback Program
Apple will announce an update to its capital return program next month (likely in conjunction with its 2Q15 earnings release).


​​​​​​March 30

Russell 2000 vs SP500: Still Outperforming SP500 ?
But the real interesting part is that this ratio already broke out the resistance trendline ( On March 9 2015 ) from a Rising Wedge that started on May 7 2014 and then can gives a real bullish impulse to the Russell on a Relative Basis to the Mighty SP500.

​​​Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Macro Divergence Prevail ?
The Divergence Continue to Prevail since June 2014 as the Ratio is making lower highs and lower lows but the SP500 continue to grind up.​​

Profit warnings are piling up
Of S&P 500 companies providing first-quarter outlooks, 84% have been negative.

​​Analysts Remain Bullish As Apple Inc. Car Rumors Stir
Apple never ceases to impress the public with new innovations and acquisitions. This week, Apple has been causing a stir with its rumored entrance into the electric car market, and a new music streaming service.

​​March 27

SP500 Financials HVol: Very Unusual Trading Behavior ?
But what is interesting, it is that HVol is getting lower in a bear trend ( broken 50 DMA ) with Financials, a very unusual trading behavior.

How Different Sectors of the Market Perform Once the Fed Starts Hiking RatesAs the market prepares for the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes, Credit Suisse is out with a note titled "Lessons for Liftoff" that analyzes what rate hikes actually mean for markets.

​Analyzing Apple's Expected Cash Dividend Increase In April
Much of the significance underpinning Apple's buyback and dividends has been lost on market observers as the focus remains on the near-term trade, ignoring capital management's long-term signaling effect.

​​​​​March 26

VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
Also observe that the SP500 index is near a Major Support Trendline ​that started back in February 2015.​​
Breaking that Support Trendline will add to the new upward trend in the VIX and finally some fear being priced.


​Rosenberg: These are the four obstacles facing the U.S. stock market
Earnings momentum, valuations, the economy and the U.S. dollar - all represent challenges for the U.S. stock market.

​Technical Observation of the Day: Break Down on Apple - AAPL
​On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17.

Short interest in Apple is near an all-time low
​​High-risk bets against the stock are increasingly unpopular.

​​​​​March 25

SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Quite Bullish ?
But getting over the 200 DMA on that Indicator ( now at 71.44 - ​red line chart below ) have been in the past a first warning sign ​of overbought conditions building up.

​​​​Opinion: You won’t know the bull market is over until the bear is here
Even market timers get taken by surprise.

​Will Apple Be The First Trillion-Dollar Company?
One of Apple Inc.'s biggest believers on Wall Street is getting even more bullish.

​​March 24

SP600 : Volume A/D: Overbought Zone ?
This ratio is now within the overbought zone. And also the Bollinger Band is getting near the 0.80 threshold level also associated with market near overbought territory .

TSX60, Cdn Dollar and SP100: Canadian Stocks Cheapest since May 2005 ?
On a relative basis, the last time it was that cheap for the Canadian Stocks was in May 2005.

Four signs that U.S. market momentum may be losing steam
There are many different factors that can influence markets, but among the most powerful is momentum for the simple reason that people find comfort and safety in doing what everyone else is doing.

​​U.S. Broker Survey shows that Android Switchers to the iPhone is on the Increase, Especially in ChinaAccording to Arcuri, "Nearly 20% of iPhone 6/6+ owners across all markets surveyed said their new device replaced a competitor's smartphone, of which 83% were Android.

​​​​​March 23

E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Small Speculators: Longest Ever ?
​Small Speculators are increasing their Long Positions since the beginning
​of the new Year at a tremendous pace.


SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
And each year beginning 1 week earlier from monthe end are the window dressing process where rapatriation of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets.

​​SP500 Technology Bull% Index: The Apple Experiment - AAPL ?
​That % indicator on Technology Stocks is again over a level of 80% ​treshold since February 20 ( spot index at 83.3%); it is now into the ​overbought level as history suggest.

Technical Observation of the Day: Broken 20 DMA on Apple
​On March 20, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $127.66.

​Why The Buyback Binge Is Not As Bullish As You May Think

Why? Because companies may be the worst market timers there are.

​Apple Flash Crash: ​​The Farce That Is The "Market" In One Chart
​​This is what happened to the world's most valuable company in the last minutes of trading, a nearly $10 billion move in market cap in seconds.... on nothing.

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Trading SP500 - All you need in terms of information to trade E-Mini SP500 Futures​
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Trading Apple - All you need in terms of information to trade Apple Shares​