FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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May 21

SP500 Index Bull% Index: Divergence ?
Also observe the divergence between the % Bullish Index and the Mighty SP500; lower highs from the Index and higher highs from the SP500 since December 2014.

Buybacks and Dividends All That's Left in S&P 500, Goldman Says
​Dividends and buybacks will be responsible for supporting a market where the median stock in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is trading at 18.2 times earnings, putting it in the 99th percentile of historical valuation, the firm said in a note to clients. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the S&P 500 will rise to 2,150 by mid-year before fading to 2,100 by the end of 2015.

China Mobile's Slower 4G Growth Could Negatively Impact Apple's iPhone June Qtr. China Mobile and China Unicom released their April subscriber numbers and China Mobile experienced much slower growth in its 4G user base than it has in recent months. Since China has been a major growth driver in Apple AAPL +0.03%’s results this could have an impact on Apple’s June quarter results.

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​May 20

The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?VIX/GOLD correlation getting at the -0.60 zone on May 19 and VIX ​at 12.85, indicating higher volatility ahead...

SP500 and Emerging Markets: EM in a Downtrend Channel ?
Observe the Break Out on the SP500 Index on May 15 but not on the Emerging Markets. ​​Also quite interesting is the behavior lately of the EEM and US Dollar Index (DXY). The EEM is outperforming when DXY is under pressure and vice versa...

Manage Portfolio Risks with Diversified ETFs
​The proliferation of exchange traded funds has helped investors and advisors create low-cost and tax-efficient ways to access various market segments. With ETFs, investors are able to diversify risk-exposure, or maximize a portfolio’s Sharpe ratio, the return per unit of risk, according to BlackRock.

Apple Is Gaming Fed Policy to Counteract Its Stagnating Stock Price
The risk of raising interest rates prematurely looms large. And there's the distinct possibility of damage to Fed credibility if they move and then soon after are forced to reverse course by easing again. I find it hard to believe that after nearly eight years of combating a stagnant economy, the Fed wants to high tail it before the job is done and has multiple expansionary economic data points on which to hang its rate-rising hat.

​​​​​​​May 19

​SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
The market continue to price less and less risks on each correction as the level of the ratio continue to make higher lows... The Fear Gauge is definitively falling and market near total complacency...

Russell 2000 and DJ Industrial ratio: Near Resistance Trendline ?
Observe also the Breakdown on the Russell 2000​​ from a Major Support Trendline broken on April 30 2015 at the 1246 level ( now becomes Major Resistance ). We are near retesting that Trendline form a broken wedge for today at 1267.5.

Nobel Winner’s Math Is Showing S&P 500 Unhinged From Reality
If you sold every share of every company in the U.S. and used the money to buy up all the factories, machines and inventory, you’d have some cash left over. That, in a nutshell, is the math behind a bear case on equities that says prices have outrun reality.

Carl Icahn thinks everyone else is too stupid to understand what Apple is really worth (AAPL) It is our belief that large institutional investors, Wall Street analysts and the news media alike continue to misunderstand Apple and generally fail to value Apple’s net cash separately from its business, fail to adjust earnings to reflect Apple’s real cash tax rate, fail to recognize the growth prospects of Apple entering new categories, and fail to recognize that Apple will maintain pricing and margins, despite significant evidence to the contrary. Collectively, these failures have caused Apple’s earnings multiple to stay irrationally discounted, in our view.

​​​​May 18

SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: No Strenght ?

Observe also that we have a New high ever on the Mighty SP500 Index but Lower highs on the last print of the 7 DMA on the Volume Advance-Decline Indicator: we are getting into a divergence.

TSX60, Cdn $ and SP100: Canadian Stocks Cheapest since June 2005 ?

As we may observe, Valuation came back to the level ​of June 2005. We are in a Bottoming Out Pattern.

E-Mini SP Midcap Fut COT: Small Speculators: Longest Since Dec 2014 ?
That behavior from small speculators is coming from the fact the the SP Midcap 400 Index underperformed tremendously since April 2 to reach a bottom on May 11 and rebounded violently since then...

Are We In The Midst Of A Stock Market Bubble?
​​The market has sure had a great run since March 2009. Those of us who concluded (in my case, somewhat belatedly) that we had put in a bottom comparable in importance to June 1932 or August 1982 have been generously rewarded (although I admit to selling some stock at the very bottom in March 2009). Isn't it likely that, after such a great run, "irrational exuberance" will break out and produce a "bubble" leading to a horrible collapse? It has happened before and surely can happen again.

​​UBS' Initial Estimate For Apple's June Qtr. iPhone Sales Above ExpectationsApple analyst Steve Milunovich raised his estimate for the company’s June quarter iPhone sales from 43 to 48 million based upon UBS’ Evidence Lab iPhone Monitor indicating that there is demand for 51.1 million units in the quarter.

​​​​​​​May 15

SP500 Index: Break Out ?
We ​finally broke on May 14 a Major Daily Resistance Trendline from ​an ​Ascending Triangle Pattern at ​2113.5 that started on February 25.

SP500 Technology Bull% Index: The Apple Experiment - AAPL ?
Observe the divergence between the sentiment for the Technology Sector since the beginning of April 2015 and XLK ETF higher in price now: a divergence indeed as you may see​...

Technical Observation of the Day: Back Above the 20 DMA on Apple - AAPL
On May 14, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $127.53.

​A Once Famous Bear Is Bullish on Stocks
​For years, Richard Bernstein was an oddity on Wall Street: an investment strategist with a household-name firm who was actually a pessimist about stocks. And despite the fact that we are more than six years into a bull market, Bernstein remains bullish, though a bit less so than he was in 2012.

AppleTo Sell 51.1 Million iPhones In June Quarter: UBS Evidence Lab
​UBS Evidence Lab employs a model to predict shipment figures more accurately than the Street consensus.

​​​​​​​May 14

DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: Another Warning from the Dow Theory ?
Also observe the Major Divergence since Mid-November as the ratio is making lower highs but not the Mighty SP500. Quite surprising that DJ Transport underperform within Oil price historically low...​​

The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Into an Uptrend Channel ?
But the most interesting fact is that we tested and broke on May 8 a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on February 25 2015 on the XLI ETF.

Biggest Inflection Point for 2015 Happening Right Now (Update)
Back on May 1st I penned an article showing that we were facing an important inflection point in the markets with a simultaneous peak in the dollar and a bottom in global growth that would have widespread investment implications. Chief beneficiaries cited were foreign currencies, foreign equities, and commodities while the bond market would likely be the greatest casualty.











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Trading SP500 - All you need in terms of information to trade E-Mini SP500 Futures​
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Trading Apple - All you need in terms of information to trade Apple Shares​